Over- vs. Underdetermined Innovation Systems
Systems differ not only in what they produce, but in how much freedom they allow along the way.
A closed, over-determined system specifies most of its important variables in advance. Consider an assembly line at the end of a production process: the sequence is set, the tasks are standardized, and there is little discretion in how work should be done. That is precisely the point.
In production, variation is a defect.
An open, under-determined system works differently. Take a creative agency responding to a client brief. The brief sets an objective, but it does not prescribe the route to the answer. Different teams, or even different lead creatives, may produce entirely different work from the same starting point. The task itself shifts with the people doing it. That freedom is not a flaw in the system. It is where its value comes from.
Innovation belongs in this second category. We pursue innovation because we want an outcome that surprises us, something we could not have specified in advance. A client may ask for a new campaign but cannot describe the idea that will make it memorable. In fact, if they could fully describe it beforehand, we would probably call it execution rather than innovation.
Still, openness has limits. A system can be over-determined, with nearly everything decided in advance; under-determined, with crucial elements left open; or undetermined, with no meaningful constraints at all. Innovation should sit in the middle. It needs enough structure to prevent drift and confusion, but not so much structure that novelty becomes impossible.
Established organizations often struggle with this distinction because over-determination is essential to their core business. They define processes, reduce variance, align activities with strategy, and focus resources on known customer problems. Each choice is sensible on its own.
Together, however, they can turn innovation into another tightly managed production process.
The result is predictable: organizations expect innovation to deliver surprise while eliminating every condition that might produce it.
They decide where to look,
which search fields are acceptable,
what customer needs matter,
and how closely ideas must fit existing strategy.
Then they wonder why nothing genuinely new appears.
Innovation requires constraints, but it also requires room for outcomes we cannot specify in advance.
I built a little tool with some sliders that help you assess whether your innovation system is undetermined, overdetermined, or underdetermined. It’s not meant to provide a perfect diagnosis; I hope it illustrates how different strategic choices influence each other and the system’s ability to produce novel outcomes.
Have a go here: https://www.innovate-strategy.com/structure-design
